KEA20: Tuning into Predictability Estimation as Uncertainty Reduction. Michael Godeсk.

The whole point of estimation is to support decisions. If an estimate doesn’t help resolve uncertainty about a decision we have to make, then it doesn’t have any value. Estimates are counter-productive when the intention is to set performance targets. To get value out of estimation, we first need to clarify what we’re after: for example, Capacity Planning, Effort Estimation and Release Planning are distinct goals requiring different information to support decisions. In this session, we’ll tell the story of estimation as a quantitatively expressed reduction of uncertainty based on observations, and we’ll look at how to apply that in the context of the various estimation goals